People Aren’t Murdered Very Often
HBD-denialism and crime-exaggeration are two of my intellectual pet-peeves. But I sometimes forget the second while thinking about the first.
When you look at crime broken down by race, the differences are pretty striking. In the USA, for example, blacks constitute about 12% of the population but commit more than 50% of all murders.
On the other hand, there aren’t that many murders. People watch a lot of TV, and it can be pretty hard to convince them that there aren’t serial killers and pedophiles on every block, but in reality things aren’t that bad. Take Toronto. The whole GTA has a population of slightly over six million. Last year the GTA had seventy-five murders. That’s one murder for every eighty-thousand people for the year. Sure, it’s not quite as good as Iceland, but it’s hardly shocking.
Let’s put these two things together. Suppose that half of all murders in Toronto are committed by black men (I’m just making this up—the Toronto police keep, but don’t release, stats). And assume a 8% figure for blacks in the GTA, which gives us 240,000 black men. In that case, one out of every 6,486 black men committed a murder in 2011. Which is nothing. It might translate to a much higher rate than for East Asians, but it’s still negligible.
The picture is different when you look at smaller crimes and social pathologies in general. Those things make a big difference to quality of life and social friction. But still.